2025 Peak Benchmark
Consumers will still spend this holiday season. How and why they make purchases will depend on personalized offers, practical value and AI-driven recommendations.
Our survey of 1,600 US and UK consumers, combined with anonymized, aggregated data from Quantum Metric, uncovered peak isn’t about a weekend; it’s about building loyalty all year.
45% of consumers started holiday shopping before Black Friday (up 28% from 2024).
25% will finish before Thanksgiving.
68% of consumers will shop or book with brands they already trust.
63% prioritize personalized deals.
47% of consumers purchased a “dupe" to cut spending.
Quantum Metric data shows as error rates dropped 22% YoY, order values grew 23%.
Consumers visit a site 2-3 times before a purchase or action.
5 pages are viewed per visit, less for social media or ad referrals.
42% of consumers will use AI to find or compare purchases or bookings.
AI referred traffic rates have increased by 600% since January.
The 2025 holiday shopper isn’t waiting for Black Friday: 45% have already started shopping (up from 28% in 2024), and 25% plan to finish before Cyber Five.
Early promotions aren’t seeing a big response either: only 15% of consumers took advantage of October holiday sales.
The big takeaway here? General holidays sales no longer incentivize consumers to make purchases. Instead shoppers are planning purchases when best works for them, attempting to build bigger one-time carts versus impulse busy.
Retailers are feeling the shift:
Travel brands are seeing the opposite trend, but the same pattern. Consumers are still booking, but also spend more time browsing to make sure they get the best price.
Covered first in our 2024 peak report, we see patterns that show peak is no longer one weekend - it’s a mindset. Tailored and year-round offers will drive sales and repeat visits.
Are sales dead? Not exactly. General sale days may be fading, but personalized offers still drive most purchases.
Promo codes still matter too. Almost every consumer (90%) will use promo codes for their holiday purchases, but 79% will only use those received directly from a brand.
The survey response chart shows responses broken down by generation, illustrating that regardless of age consumers are most likely to get a promo code direct from the source.
Promotions are important, but context matters more. Brands that personalize experiences are customers’ default choice.
Budget caution is real. Consumers are focused on making purchases that offer more value, both in the product or service, and the experience.
It also means stores that offer more products in one place see bigger carts. The chart, YoY change in average order value, shows changes in average monthly order values by types of retailers between 2024 and 2025. Taking a look we see big box average order values (AOV) up 26%, while other retail storefronts see declines.
Convenience and reliability are also king. That means a seamless, error-free experience will go a long way. Quantum Metric data in the chart, 2025 monthly retail average order value & error rate, shows that as monthly retail error rates dropped 22% from 2024-2025, average monthly order values grew 23%.
When things work smoothly, people buy confidently, spend more, and over time become loyal to your brand. It’s about feeling seen as important by your brand.
So where do you start to ensure the best experience? Take a read of this blog for some of the biggest lessons our customers have learned when it comes to holiday friction.
Customers don’t distinguish between marketing and product; they just remember how it felt to shop on your site or app. Brands need to make an impact in every instance.
What sources drive the most site traffic and the most sales? It depends on the industry.
The chart, 2025 traffic shares by referrer, finds that social media makes an impact for retail and telecommunications (Telco), but travel and financial services (FSI) still rely on mostly direct traffic. In every industry, email, ads and even AI still make up less than 1% of all traffic to a site, which is why they aren’t shown.
If we look at the chart, Average 2025 CVR by referrer, we see that conversion rates for retail and travel brands are 2X higher when coming direct or through search, than through social media or ads.
The experience is continuous and requires the right intention to drive sales or engagement. If brands are going to drive traffic from ad or social channels, they need to consider how more personalized follow-ups can help boost purchasing intention over time.
AI is now the shopping assistant.
Traffic referred by AI may still sit below 1% of overall traffic, but it is growing quickly. The chart, 2025 monthly AI referral traffic, shows that between January and October of this year monthly rates have increased by 600%.
And when traffic from Gen AI chatbots arrives, it’s ready to buy. The table, 2025 monthly CVR: Overall versus AI-driven, we see traffic from AI chatbots converts at rates 43% higher than average retail CVR.
AI, however, has no brand loyalty. If your experience stalls, AI will recommend a competitor.
With the rise of agentic AI, concern grows: 1 in 5 consumers are ready to have AI agents browse and buy or book automatically. Get something wrong, and that sale goes to a competitor.
Brands that optimize content and landing experiences for AI-referred traffic can turn curiosity into conversion, before someone else does.
Brands that thrive in this new normal don’t wait for big weekends; they continuously feel effortless, predictive, and personal.
And that seamless feeling won’t just be beneficial for human interactions. As agentic AI grows, brands will need to focus on how to cater near perfect experiences for humans and AI. That’s the new measure of success.
In short, holiday sales will happen, they’ll just go to the best experience. Discover how Quantum Metric helps teams optimize every digital moment.
